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Stock up!

Mike Avery <mavery@mail.otherwhen.com>
Wed, 12 Mar 2008 20:26:42 -0500
v108.n010.4
Hi,

I was touring a really neat bakery today here in Dallas.  The owner 
was telling me about flour prices, and they are scary!  They have 
pretty much tripled since the start of the year.  For wheat, for rye, 
and more than that for semolina.

If you can afford it, and if you have the storage space for it, stock 
up on your favorite flours NOW.  The full effects of the price hikes 
haven't made it to the grocery stores, but that happy situation is 
unlikely to continue for much longer.

Even more important than stocking up on flour, if you like pasta, 
stock up.  The price of semolina flour has gone up far more.  It was 
over $160 for a 50lb sack.  This is like the ONLY ingredient in most 
pastas, and the price will have to go up.

There are a number of factors in the price hikes.  Some of them are 
not really amenable to short term fixes.  Some of them are beyond 
anyone's control.  Here's a few of them....

A number of wheat farmers have switched to growing corn for ethanol - 
the government subsidies for this ill conceived project are just too 
attractive for some farmers to say no to.  The pendulum could swing 
back the other way, but most observers say that by itself, this would 
not have been a major issue - there would have been enough acres of 
wheat being raised if it hadn't been for the rest of these issues.

Next, the dollar is in free-fall, dropping faster than (oh... just 
think up your own tawdry comparison here).  This has caused a year long...

Rise in fuel prices.  It takes fertilizer to grow the stuff (in 
conventional agriculture, anyway), fuel to tend it, and fuel to move 
it and process it.

Next, the China and India have quickly growing middle classes who 
want more wheat products.  Pasta.  Bread.   Increased demand and a 
dwindling supply ALWAYS causes problems.  And they have lots of 
dollars to spend.

And finally, the crops are bad this year, both in quantity and 
quality. This is above and beyond the reduced acreage.  As a result, 
stocks of wheat are reaching record lows, and some industry 
spokespeople have said it will take 2 to 3 consecutive good years to 
bring things back to normal.

If you grind your own flour, stock up on wheat berries, they last a 
LONG time.  If you are a whole grain baker, you might consider 
starting to grind your own flour.  Whole grain flours have a limited 
shelf life, and they will go rancid fairly quickly.  How quickly?  It 
depends on storage conditions, but figure 6 months or so.  The clock 
starts ticking when the grain is ground into flour.  Wheat and rye 
berries have a very, very long shelf life.  What about white 
flour?  With the bran and germ removed, refined flours have a much 
longer shelf life than whole grain flours.  Figure between 2 and 3 years.

In both the case of whole grain flours and refined flours, you can 
extend their shelf life by freezing the flours.  Remember, a full 
freezer is pretty cheap to run.  If you don't have one, look around 
for a used chest freezer - they are cheap to buy, you can put more 
into them than in an upright, and they are cheaper to run than an 
upright freezer.

Best wishes,
Mike

Mike Avery 	mavery at mail dot otherwhen dot com
part time baker 	http://www.sourdoughhome.com
networking guru 	Skype mavery81230
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