Hi Dan,
Very interesting analysis, but I think your numbers are *slightly*
off (not enough to alter your point).
In the "average" case
1209 g average moisture flour X 87.5% solids in average moisture =
1058 g solids
If we solve backwards
1058 g solids / 85% solids in wet flour = 1245 g wet flour
Difference is 36 g or 3%.
So add 36 g flour and subtract 36 g water from your formula.
Having said all that, I still suspect that this business of adjusting
for humidity is more of an "old husbands' tale" as MikeA would say.
My theory is that most/many of these humidity theories were developed
by people measuring flour by volume as opposed to weight. And my
informal tests in baking classes show that batch-to-batch differences
when measuring by volume dwarf that 3% figure.
Allen
PS: The "true" hydration of your bread can be calculated as:
1209 g flour X 13.5% = 151 g water
1209 g flour X 65% add in water % = 786 g water
Total water 937 g.
Total "true" hydration = 937/1058 = 88.6%